Analytics Glossary

Estimated salary for arbitration-eligible players based on service time and performance.

Dollar value assigned to players in fantasy baseball auction drafts.

Runs added or lost due to baserunning ability, including stolen bases, caught stealing, and taking extra bases.

The speed of the bat at the point of contact or maximum speed during the swing, measured in miles per hour (mph). Elite bat speeds exceed 75 mph.

Statistical approach updating beliefs based on prior information and new data.

The success rate at which a stolen base attempt has neutral expected value, typically around 70-75%.

Total expected value of a player contract based on projected performance.

Percentage of swings with bat speed above a threshold (typically 70+ mph), indicating power potential.

The initial burst of speed and direction by an outfielder when a ball is hit, measured in feet per second or reaction time.

The unique identifier assigned to players by MLB Advanced Media, used in Statcast and most modern baseball databases.

Run value adjustment in WAR based on defensive difficulty of position played.

Forecasted WAR for upcoming season based on projection systems.

Table showing expected runs for all 24 base-out states.

Run value of stolen base attempts, calculated as (SB × runSB) + (CS × runCS).

Sum of bases from all hits, calculated as 1B + 2×2B + 3×3B + 4×HR.

Metric quantifying baserunning value from all non-stolen base situations (taking extra bases, tagging up, avoiding outs), measured in runs.

Baseball Prospectus's version of WAR, using different component metrics and methodologies.

Probability of winning given current game state (inning, score, base-out state).

Runs added from stolen bases, calculated as (SB × 0.2) - (CS × 0.43), using linear weights for SB success and failure.