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Independent, original MLB analysis built on public data and open, re-runnable code. Explainers, tutorials, and deep dives — with every statistic traced back to a real data pull, never invented.

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Data Deep-Dives

Who Really Wins the Close Ones? 2026's One-Run Records Are Mostly Noise

The Phillies are 19-6 in one-run games and 35-37 in the rest. Across 2026, one-run win% tracks other-game win% at just r=0.16 — close games are mostly coin flips.

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Latest articles

Data Deep-Dives

How Historic Is the Dodgers' Run Differential? 2026's Extremes Against Four Seasons of Finishes

The Dodgers are at +1.75 runs a game — a pace only the 2022 Dodgers finished above in 120 team-seasons since 2021. The floor, meanwhile, is ordinary.

Jul 9, 2026

Data Deep-Dives

Scoring Is Back: The 2026 Run Environment in Twelve-Season Context

2026 is scoring 9.04 combined runs a game through July 6 — up from 8.89 in 2025 and the hottest rate since 2023. A four-year audit shows July snapshots hold.

Jul 6, 2026

Projections & Methodology

Does Offense or Defense Carry Over More? Year-to-Year Reliability, 2021-2024

Across 90 season pairs (2021-2024), runs allowed per game carried over at r=0.50 while runs scored carried at just r=0.28. Run prevention is the stickier skill.

Jul 5, 2026

Tutorials

Join Team Batting and Pitching in Python to Build a Run-Differential Table

Join 2024 team batting and pitching on team_id in plain Python, compute run differential and Pythagorean wins for all 30 teams, and find the luckiest club.

Jul 4, 2026

Data Deep-Dives

What ERA Leaves Out: Unearned Runs and the Gap to Runs Allowed

ERA quietly discards about one run in twelve. Across 2024's 30 teams, RA/9 ran 0.38 above ERA — and runs allowed predicted winning better (r=0.77 vs 0.74).

Jul 3, 2026

Stat Explainers

Isolated Power (ISO), Explained: Raw Power Without the Singles

Isolated Power strips singles out of slugging to leave pure extra-base pop. Across 2024's 30 teams, ISO tracked homers at r=0.95 but scoring at just 0.86.

Jul 2, 2026

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21 articles Stat Explainers The metrics, demystified. 9 articles Tutorials Roll up your sleeves. 10 articles Baseball History Old games, new lenses. 8 articles Projections & Methodology How the models think. 13 articles Player & Team Analysis Signal over narrative. 23 articles Data Deep-Dives Long-form, data-first investigations into league-wide trends — usage patterns, rule-change effects, and the stories hiding in the aggregate numbers..