The Schedule They Have Left: Remaining Strength of Schedule for 2026's Contenders
984 games remain after the break. League-wide, remaining-schedule tilt spans just 4.5 wins — and the tied AL Central is the one race where it decides anything.
Category
Data Deep-Dives
Long-form, data-first investigations into league-wide trends — usage patterns, rule-change effects, and the stories hiding in the aggregate numbers.
Who Really Wins the Close Ones? 2026's One-Run Records Are Mostly Noise
The Phillies are 19-6 in one-run games and 35-37 in the rest. Across 2026, one-run win% tracks other-game win% at just r=0.16 — close games are mostly coin flips.
How Historic Is the Dodgers' Run Differential? 2026's Extremes Against Four Seasons of Finishes
The Dodgers are at +1.75 runs a game — a pace only the 2022 Dodgers finished above in 120 team-seasons since 2021. The floor, meanwhile, is ordinary.
Scoring Is Back: The 2026 Run Environment in Twelve-Season Context
2026 is scoring 9.04 combined runs a game through July 6 — up from 8.89 in 2025 and the hottest rate since 2023. A four-year audit shows July snapshots hold.
What ERA Leaves Out: Unearned Runs and the Gap to Runs Allowed
ERA quietly discards about one run in twelve. Across 2024's 30 teams, RA/9 ran 0.38 above ERA — and runs allowed predicted winning better (r=0.77 vs 0.74).
Offense or Pitching? The 2026 Run-Scoring Map
Run differential blends two skills. Split 2026's teams by runs scored and runs allowed per game to map who wins on offense, who on pitching, and who does both.
The 2026 MLB Season So Far, By the Numbers
A live snapshot of the 2026 MLB season, rebuilt from the MLB Stats API: the best records and run differentials, Pythagorean luck, and the division races.
How Much Does the Home Run Drive Run Scoring?
Each home run was worth about 2.21 runs across 2024's 30 teams, and homers explain 62% of scoring variance — yet OBP tracks scoring better (r=0.93 vs 0.79).
How Many Runs Does a Win Cost? The 10-Run Rule, Checked
Regress wins on run differential across 60 team-seasons (2023-24): one win per 10.7 runs, with the line through exactly 81 wins at zero. The 10-run rule holds.
Is MLB Getting More Top-Heavy? Competitive Balance, 2015-2024
MLB's gap between best and worst widened to a 2019 peak — records spread 15.6 wins around .500 — then eased to 12.3 by 2024. Imbalance crested, not climbed.
K-BB%: The One Pitching Number That Travels
Strikeouts minus walks per batter faced is the pitching skill a defense can't touch — and across 2024's 30 teams it explains 69% of ERA variance (r=-0.83).
Run Differential Predicts Next Year Better Than Wins Do
Across 90 season pairs (2021-2024), Pythagorean win% predicts next year's record better than actual win% does (r=0.57 vs 0.54) — it strips out the timing luck.
Which Hitting Stat Predicts Winning? OBP vs. SLG vs. Average
The Moneyball claim, re-tested on 2024: OBP and OPS correlate with winning at 0.79 while batting average trails at 0.62. Not making outs beats collecting hits.
Consistent Contenders vs. Boom-and-Bust: MLB's Most and Least Steady Franchises
Plot mean win% against year-to-year volatility (2015-2024) and MLB splits into steady winners, boom-and-bust rebuilders, and the consistently mediocre.
Was the AL or NL Stronger in 2023? The Answer Hiding in Run Differential
Summing run differential by league isolates interleague play — the NL edged the AL by 44 runs in 2023, even as the AL East was baseball's best division.
How Competitive Was 2023? Measuring Balance with the Noll-Scully Ratio
MLB in 2023 was about twice as top-heavy as a perfectly balanced league — a Noll-Scully ratio of 2.03. How it splits the standings into talent and luck.
Offense or Defense: What Won in 2023?
Did scoring runs or preventing them matter more in 2023? The real correlations say run prevention edged out offense — and run differential ties them together.
The Luckiest and Unluckiest Teams of 2023
Pythagorean residuals name 2023's luckiest and unluckiest teams: the Marlins beat their run differential by 9 wins while the Padres fell 10 short of theirs.
Home-Field Advantage in Baseball: Small, Real, and Hard to Explain
Baseball has the smallest home-field edge of the major sports. How big it actually is, and the proposed drivers from last at-bat to umpire tendencies.
The Times-Through-the-Order Penalty: Why Pitchers Fade the Third Time
Pitchers get hit harder each time they face a lineup. The times-through-the-order penalty, familiarity versus fatigue, and how it reshaped bullpen usage.
The Death of the Sacrifice Bunt: How Run Expectancy Changed Strategy
The sac bunt has nearly vanished from the non-pitcher game. The run-expectancy math that doomed it, and what the long decline actually looks like.
The Stolen Base Is Back: What the 2023 Rules Did to Baserunning
Bigger bases and a pickoff limit brought the stolen base roaring back. Two seasons of data on attempts, success rates, and what actually changed.
The Shift Ban, Two Seasons Later: What Actually Changed
Two seasons after the infield shift was restricted, what actually changed? League BABIP, pull-side outcomes, and the gap between the promise and the data.
Bullpen Usage Patterns: What the Data Says About Modern Reliever Management
Starters throw fewer innings than ever and bullpens pick up the slack. What the data says about how modern relievers are actually used.