Why Playoff Odds Models Disagree: A Look Under the Hood
FanGraphs says 62%, another model says 48%. A look under the hood at how playoff-odds simulations are built — and why reasonable models reach different answers.
Category
Projections & Methodology
How the models think. The machinery behind win probability, playoff odds, and forecasting — why models disagree, and what their numbers really mean.
How Win-Probability Models Work (And Why They Disagree)
That live win-probability percentage has a model behind it. How win expectancy is built, why two models disagree on the same play, and what the number really means.
Does Spring Training Performance Predict Anything? What the Research Says
Every March, hot spring stats spark hope. What the research actually says about whether spring-training performance carries into the regular season.